China’s exports fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, dragged down by a sharp 25% drop in shipments to the United States, according to official customs data released on Friday.
The decline marks the weakest performance since February, following an 8.3% surge in September. Imports rose by just 1% from a year earlier — a slowdown from the 7.4% increase recorded in the previous month.
The steep fall in exports to the US underscores the lingering impact of trade frictions, despite recent signs of thawing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Last month, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea, agreeing to roll back certain tariffs and delay the introduction of new port fees. In return, China suspended export restrictions on rare earth minerals for a year and pledged to increase purchases of US agricultural goods.
As part of the agreement, Washington has also eased select sanctions on Chinese companies.
Weak Domestic Outlook
Analysts say the October downturn was partly due to a high comparison base from October 2024, when exports had jumped 12.6% — the fastest growth in more than two years. But they also point to deeper structural challenges, including China’s ailing property sector and sluggish household spending.
Shipments to the US have now declined by double digits for seven consecutive months. Beijing has been working to diversify its trade portfolio by expanding exports to Southeast Asia and Africa, though demand from those regions has yet to fully offset losses from the American market.
Signs of Stabilisation Ahead
Goldman Sachs economists forecast that China’s export volumes could grow between 5% and 6% annually, helping strengthen its global trade position over the medium term.
Capital Economics analysts Leah Fahy and Zichun Huang noted that the recent tariff reductions could provide a modest lift to exports later this year, but the tangible effects are more likely to emerge in early 2026.
BNP Paribas’s chief China economist Wei Li echoed that sentiment, predicting that a meaningful rebound in exports to the US will begin in the first quarter of 2026 and gather pace by midyear.
Beijing Reaffirms Free Trade Commitment
At the China International Import Expo in Shanghai this week, Premier Li Qiang reiterated the government’s support for open markets, pledging to uphold the principles of “free markets and free trade.” He also criticised the resurgence of protectionist policies in major economies, warning that such measures “undermine global growth and disproportionately harm developing nations.”
Despite recent setbacks, economists believe China’s export engine remains resilient — though its path to recovery will hinge on sustained global demand and the success of diplomatic efforts to stabilise trade relations with the United States.
