Democrat James Talarico wins Texas Senate seat

Democrat James Talarico has won the US Senate race in Texas, defeating Republican Ken Paxton, the first Democratic Senate win in the state since 1988. The Associated Press has called the race, and NBC News and Decision Desk HQ also projected it.

For readers outside the US, Texas is one of the most Republican large states, so the result is a sign of how far the political mood has moved during the midterm elections, held halfway through President Donald Trump’s second term.

I could not see AP’s vote totals, so I can’t give a final margin. One outlet, citing Decision Desk HQ, reported a lead of about 807,000 votes when that organisation made its call, but counts change and that figure may have moved.

Talarico, a 37-year-old state lawmaker and seminarian, ran on a message of “top versus bottom instead of left versus right,” arguing that the wealthiest Americans benefit when everyone else is divided. He used Christian language, broke fundraising records with small donors and campaigned across rural and Republican areas. NBC reports that record early turnout and a swing of Latino voters back to Democrats helped him. He did not campaign with national Democrats from outside Texas, which his campaign hoped would stop Paxton linking him to the national party.

Paxton, the state attorney general, won the Republican nomination in May by beating incumbent Senator John Cornyn after Trump endorsed him. He has faced years of scandals, including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, after which the state Senate acquitted him. NBC reports that several prominent Republicans publicly backed Talarico, including two members of the Bush family, and that Cornyn said he would support the Republican ticket without specifically endorsing Paxton. Paxton had major financial help from Elon Musk, whose super PAC spending NBC puts at $168 million in ads. Republicans also ran ads using Talarico’s past comments on gender and transgender issues, and Trump visited Texas three times in October.

The result was closer to a coin flip than an upset, based on forecasts. Call the Map’s last forecast gave Talarico about a 55% chance, and NBC says he led polls through the autumn, mostly within the margin of error. The call as “against the odds” reflects Texas’s history, not the final polls.

Texas was one of several Democratic gains on Tuesday. States Newsroom reports flips in North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio and Texas, with Roy Cooper beating Michael Whatley in North Carolina and Annie Andrews beating Darline Graham in South Carolina, and Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected to win in Georgia. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a Senate majority, with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties for Republicans, and control had not been settled in the reports I found. Michigan, Maine, Alaska and Iowa were among the races still being counted. I could not get AP’s chamber seat count, so check the latest figures.

One update on Michigan: Breitbart and Reuters report that Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, switched her endorsement to Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday. That changes my earlier Michigan report, which described her as still supporting El-Sayed.

Sources: NBC News, NBC Boston, WINK News (AP), San Angelo LIVE, Daily Letter (Decision Desk HQ), Breitbart, Daily Montanan (States Newsroom), Al Jazeera, Reuters via ARY News, Reuters via News-Tribune, Breitbart (Ossoff, Stevens), Call the Map, Washington Times (May runoff) and Devdiscourse (Reuters, Stevens).