Developing economies face 800mn jobs gap over the next 15 years

The World Bank warns that emerging economies may struggle to absorb a rapidly expanding working-age population, increasing pressure on governments to generate employment and sustain economic stability.

Developing economies face a potential shortfall of 800 million jobs over the next 15 years as a large generation of young people enters the labour market, while governments struggle to create enough employment opportunities with limited financial resources.

World Bank Group President Ajay Banga presented the scale of the challenge on Wednesday at the Climate Finance Summit in Antalya, Türkiye, according to Bloomberg. Around 1.2 billion people in emerging economies are expected to reach the age of 18 during the period, but these countries are forecast to generate only about 400 million new jobs.

The difference between the projected number of new labour-market entrants and expected job creation points to a major structural challenge for developing economies. Unless employment growth accelerates, a substantial share of young people could face difficulties finding work as they transition into adulthood.

The projected 800 million gap highlights the pressure facing countries with rapidly growing populations and limited capacity to expand formal employment. The challenge is not simply to create more jobs, but to generate opportunities at a pace that can absorb new entrants while supporting productivity and household incomes.

For many developing economies, employment creation depends on investment, business expansion, infrastructure, access to finance and the availability of workers with relevant skills. Weak private-sector growth or inadequate investment can constrain the number of new positions available, even as the working-age population expands.

The figures cited by Banga also point to the importance of distinguishing between population growth and employment growth. A larger working-age population can support economic expansion if workers are productively employed. Without sufficient opportunities, however, the same demographic trend can increase pressure on public services, household finances and social protection systems.

The World Bank president’s warning comes as developing countries face competing demands for public spending and investment. Governments must finance infrastructure, education, healthcare and climate adaptation while also creating conditions for businesses to expand and hire.

The challenge is particularly relevant to countries exposed to climate risks, where extreme weather, resource constraints and the costs of economic transition can affect investment and employment. The remarks were delivered at a climate finance summit, placing the jobs challenge alongside broader questions about how emerging economies can finance sustainable development.

However, the figures presented by Banga do not specify how the projected 400 million jobs will be distributed among countries or sectors. Nor do they establish how many of the expected jobs will be formal, permanent or adequately paid. Those distinctions will matter when assessing whether new employment opportunities can meet the needs of young workers.

The projected mismatch raises questions about the relationship between demographic change and economic development. A growing generation of young people can provide a substantial workforce, but the potential economic benefit depends on whether countries can create productive employment and equip workers with the necessary skills.

For policymakers, the scale of the projected gap makes job creation a central development priority. Investment in productive sectors, stronger private enterprises, skills development and reliable infrastructure may all contribute to expanding employment capacity. Yet the Bloomberg report does not provide a detailed policy programme or sector-by-sector estimate from the World Bank.

The warning nevertheless establishes the magnitude of the challenge facing emerging economies over the coming decade and a half. Around 1.2 billion people are expected to reach working age, while only 400 million new jobs are projected. How governments, businesses and development institutions respond to that imbalance will have significant implications for income growth, social stability and the broader development trajectory of the developing world.

Source: Bloomberg — An 800 Million Jobs Gap in the Developing World Fans New Risks, 11 November 2026. Report by David Stringer, citing remarks by World Bank Group President Ajay Banga at the Climate Finance Summit in Antalya.